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While there are a fair number of pessimists when it comes to dry bulk rates, there are also those who are confident in an impending boom. For instance, Cleaves Securities' chief analyst projects a significant upturn in the second quarter following an "abysmal" start to the year.
Bimco and Braemar ACM both project that trade disputes and a weak balance weigh down the dry bulk market and the Baltic Dry extraordinarily. "Right now it's a strained market all around," Norvic Shipping CEO Peter Borup tells ShippingWatch.
Exports from South America offset some of the trade war consequences for dry bulk, says Baltic Exchange CEO. But the rising protectionism in the global market remains a threat.
The benchmark Baltic Dry Index has tumbled down over the past two months, and the same applies to the share prices of the listed dry bulk carriers. But Drewry expects that the decrease is temporary.
Prominent bulk index Baltic Dry will no longer include numbers from Handysize vessels. The index reflects global trade patterns in dry bulk, explains the CEO of the Baltic Exchange.
Bulk rates soared in 2017 and landed at their highest level in three years this December. China has been the driving force, says Bimco, which predicts more moderate growth rates next year.
Bulk rates continue their upward trajectory thanks to China's imports of iron ore, reports investment bank Morgan Stanley. Rates are now at the highest level in three years.
Chinese demand for steel caused dry bulk rates to surge in the past week, notes Morgan Stanley.
Rates have generally been higher in 2017, a year projected by many to be a year of beginning recovery – but a decline since the boom in the spring has curbed the budding optimism. And this could be a good thing, says J.P. Morgan.
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Analyst firm Clarksons believes that "unabated optimism" in the dry bulk market earlier in 2017 has been replaced by more uncertainty and falling dry cargo values. Nevertheless, the analyst firm does not see cause for concern.
Last week the dry bulk rates inched above last year's peak level registered in November after many months on rock bottom, shows the most recent data from the Baltic Dry Index.
Citing the Baltic Dry Index, analyst agency Alphabulk concludes that 2016 was the worst year ever for dry bulk since the index was launched in 1985.
Friday brought yet another sign of an improving dry bulk market. With a seven percent increase, the Baltic Dry Index has crossed the magical 1,000 point threshold and has thus reached the highest level noted in 15 months.
The stock exchange in Singapore is spending GBP 87 million to take over the Baltic Dry index, a 272-year-old financial institution. The deal has been long underway, and must first gain final approval from the British financial authorities.
From a record-low starting point, spot rates for the major Capesize bulk vessels have in the past week increased 46.5 percent to USD 10,554 per day.
Fra sit rekordlave udgangspunkt er spotraten for de store Capesize-tørlastskibe den sidste uge steget med 46,5 procent til 10.554 dollars om dagen.
Treasury Risk Manager with focus on financial risk management - Group Treasury, Bunker Holding
Executive, Operations - BW LPG
