A surge in scrapping activity is not enough to compensate for the wave of new capesize ships that is finding its way to the already-strained market for the large dry bulk vessels, warns shipping association Bimco.
According to figures from database Vessels Value, not a single transaction involving capesize vessels has been closed since December 2018. This is the longest market standstill to date, states an analysis.
The Baltic Capesize Index is still under pressure, and last week it approached a historic low point. Some shipowners are well-bolstered against this adversity, while others are severely affected, believes investment bank.
En domstol i Brasillien har givet Vale tilladelse til at genoptage aktiviteten i en af selskabets miner. De lokale myndigheder skal fortsat følge op, men i det pressede capesize-segment er der allerede taget godt mod meldingen, vurderer investeringsbank over for ShippingWatch.
While many observers believe that the bottom has been reached for the strained capesize segment, Clarksons Platou warns that rates do not have to go much further down before shipowners will have to let their ships idle.
Fearnley Securities sees signs of the strained capesize segment having hit rock bottom, with rates now being lower than in smaller segments. "March should result in an imminent market upturn for the biggest ships," the shipbroker writes.
More new ships and less scrapping combined are now creating the scenario in which dry bulk carriers would least like to find themselves. The influx of new, large valemaxes could make 67 capesize vessels unemployed within 24 months.
In the latest newsletter from Alphabulk, the analyst agency has looked into how different types of dry bulk vessels have changed in size since 1990. Two vessel types in particular stand out from the crowd.
The last standard-sized Capesize vessel, more than 23 years old, has now been sold as scrap. But a young fleet and minor rate improvements mean that carriers' scrapping has reached a virtual standstill in the third quarter, reports Alphabulk.