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U.S. election, weather conditions, and international politics affect the Q4 oil price

Obama’s presidential campaign, the coming winter's possible degrees below freezing-point, and the development in Iran will affect the oil price for the rest of the year, says Global Risk Management, which publicizes its forecast for the coming quarter.

Photo: Harald Petersen/Statoil

Global Risk Management foresees an oil price which, for the rest of the year, could be brought in fluctuation by three different conditions – the financial, fundamental, and geopolitical conditions. However, the financial conditions will be the most critical for the rest of 2012, says analyst Michael Poulsen to ShippingWatch.

Poulsen compares the condition of the financial factors to the fundamental factors of a man walking his dog. The fundamental conditions move along with the man’s walking speed in a straight line from a to b, while the dog, which acts as a stand-in for the financial conditions, is situated by turns in front of and behind the man. Similarly, the oil price will also be situated, respectively, in front of and behind the underlying economy.

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