Further rate increases from container lines are expected in February as a result of the crisis in the Red Sea, according to maritime consultancy Xeneta.

However, after a more than threefold increase in freight rates from Asia to Europe over the past few months, there are also early signs that things are looking up after the Chinese New Year, according to Xeneta.

The prediction is based on the consultancy’s shipping platform, which is based on more than 400 million crowdsourced data points. The latest forecast is also based on rates already reported by customers for the first week of February.

In week 5, which runs through February 2, the price of shipping a four-foot container, FEU, from Asia to the Mediterranean has risen 11% to USD 6507, according to Xenata’s data. This corresponds to a 243% price increase since the situation in the Red Sea began to escalate in mid-December, according to the consultancy firm.

On the routes from Asia to Northern Europe, Xenata has calculated a price increase of 8% to USD 5106 per FEU next week. However, the largest price increase in percentage points will hit the routes from Asia to the US East Coast, where spot rates will increase by 17% to USD 6119 per FEU. This is 146% more than in mid-December.

The massive price increases are due to shipping companies avoiding the Red Sea and potential attacks from the Houthi movement in Yemen, instead sailing the major detour south of Africa to Europe.

”Carriers are trying to readjust services to make up for the additional sailing time around the Cape of Good Hope. For example, they are cutting journeys short, missing port calls and increasing sailing speed,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, in an update.

”However, despite this, the early data from Xeneta suggests rates will continue to rise as we head into February.”

Things are looking up after Chinese New Year

However, although rates are reportedly on the rise in the short term, according to Xeneta, there are early signs that rates may start to fall again after Chinese New Year.

”We are hearing from Xeneta customers that carriers are now no longer offering the most expensive premium services which guarantee freight will be shipped during periods of extreme pressure on available capacity,” writes Sand.

“This may suggest there is a waning demand for this level of service because the urgency is fading from the shipper side, or perhaps it is because capacity is available after all, despite the chaos caused by carriers pausing transits through the Suez Canal.”

The shipping sector usually experiences a peak season leading up to the Chinese New Year, after which activity levels off.

This year, Chinese New Year falls on Feb. 9, which is a working day. Chinese public holidays are from Feb. 10 through Feb. 17.

(Translated using DeepL with additional editing by Katrine Gøthler)