Geopolitical turmoil, pandemic, and conflicts take part in altering global trade patterns, writes analytics company Xeneta.

”As a result, we’re seeing more signs of friendshoring, whereby investments, manufacturing links and facilities are moved to countries that are deemed to be ‘friendly’ – essentially sharing the same values or geopolitical outlooks,” states Emily Stausbøl, market analyst at Xeneta, in a statement.

The process is gradual, but significant changes in container freight and global sea trade routes have already taken place, according to Xeneta’s data.

In the past five years, box freight from the Far East to the US has increased by 26 percent. Exports from China, however, only amount to growth of 7 percent.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s container exports have grown by 156 percent from 2017 to 2022.

This trend is linked to the development in China’s share of total US imports.

In 2022, 56 percent of all US box imports came from China, a decline of 10 percentage points compared to 2017. During the same time, Vietnam has nearly doubled its share from 6 to 11 percent.

According to the analyst, this only marks the beginning of a larger trend.

”It takes time to build new production bases and make port infrastructure investments as we’re seeing in places like Vietnam, Cambodia and Singapore, so the impact of investments today won’t be fully appreciated until tomorrow. This implies that the changing trade patterns we’re seeing now could just be the beginning of a far greater realignment,” Stausbøl writes.

She stresses that future developments will depend greatly on how the tensions between China and Taiwan evolve.

Contrary to the US, Europe has so far maintained its share of imports from China, but a major conflict could change this, Xeneta posits.

English edit: Kristoffer Grønbæk