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Deutsche Bank: Bulk crisis will force carriers to scrap

The dry bulk industry is headed toward an even darker period, and the stage thus looks set for a significantly higher rate of ship scrapping in 2016 than last year, estimates Deutsche Bank in an analysis.

Photo: Star Bulk

It can be very briefly stated: A historical downturn requires a historical amount of scrapping. This is the assessment in a new analysis from Deutsche Bank's shipping analysts, who have taken stock of last year's shipbreaking rate and now looks ahead to this year's prospects.

Early 2015 boded well enough, as dry bulk carriers seemed to have understood that the crisis was sinking its teeth in for real. In the first half of the year, shipowners went full throttle with their scrapping of the global fleet, and 75 percent of last year's scrapping thus took place in the first six months. This can be partially explained through seasonal fluctuations, explains Deutsche Bank. In any case, the scrapping rate last year was a step in the right direction with, for instance, the number of Capesize vessels finishing at the highest level in at least 30 years, as 90 vessels were recycled.

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