A part of Watch Media

ShippingWatchSunday5 February 2023

  • Search
  • Log in
  • Carriers
  • Logistics
  • Regulation
  • Suppliers
  • Search
  • Log in
  • Latest
  • Search
  • Log in
  • Carriers
  • Logistics
  • Regulation
  • Suppliers
  • Offshore
  • Ports
22/09/2014at 14:38

Danske Bank: Shipping about to enter new upturn

In a review of all business sectors, Danske Bank is especially positive about shipping in terms of improved creditworthiness and market potential in the years to come. The beginning of a 5-7 year cycle is underway, says the bank.
Photo: Lauritzen Kosan
BY TOMAS KRISTIANSEN

The shipping industry is on the threshold of an upturn that could last for the next five to seven years. For one of the world's major shipping banks, this means that the downturn in recent years has bottomed out, and that the traditionally cyclical shipping market is entering a growing, positive market that could last for a long time.

The optimistic forecast for the sector is presented in a new credit analysis performed by that bank and which covers all business sectors, and only two industries in the analysis are awarded the positive label "improving" - one of these is the shipping sector.

But more noteworthy is the fact that the bank estimates that the fundamental factors necessary for a global recovery of the shipping industry are now in place.

Do you want to stay up to date on the latest developments in International shipping? Subscribe to our newsletter – the first 40 days are free

This includes the expectation that the global economy is growing. This goes for the fairly limited number of ships that have been ordered. And it applies to the fact that the industry at long last looks to have digested the massive hump of newbuilding deliveries that came in the wake of the 2008 boom.

Better rating for Lauritzen

Two specific companies that have seen their standing improve at Danske Bank, in terms of credit ratings, are Odfjell and J. Lauritzen. J Lauritzen has been through serious financial difficulties, but under CEO Jan Kastrup-Nielsen the company has reduced its balance and is now focusing on dry bulk and smaller gas vessels. As such, Danske Bank points to significantly reduced risk related to the two companies.

The banks says the following about the shipping industry as a whole:

"Shipping cycles historically last 5-7 years, 2014 looking to be the first year in the recovery stage and moving towards mid-cycle earnings," says the bank.

Chemical tanker on the way

The bank's shipping analyst, Bjørn Kristian Røed, tells ShippingWatch that major shipping conglomerates such as Maersk Line and BW are still the ones holding the best credit ratings. The bank is generally positive toward companies that have more than one business unit to carry their weight.

On the other hand - that is, things that could pull a carrier's rating down - betting exclusively on individual areas such as dry bulk and, especially, the spot market is more risky.

"We're seeing a positive trend in the shipping market. This applies broadly across the segments, including chemical tanker, though we don't believe this market will really take off until 2015 or 2016," says Bjørn Kristian Røed.

Do you want to stay up to date on the latest developments in International shipping? Subscribe to our newsletter – the first 40 days are free

Danske Bank: Growing profit and acquisitions at DFDS

Danske Bank: Very strong VLGC developments

Danske Bank continues to cut shipping loans

Danske Bank: Sulfur violations could impact loans 

Related articles:

  • Photo: Carsten Bundgaard

    Danske Bank: Growing profit and acquisitions at DFDS

    For subscribers

  • Photo: Avance Gas

    Danske Bank: Very strong VLGC developments

    For subscribers

  • CEO i Danske Bank Thomas Borgen | Photo: Polfoto

    Danske Bank continues to cut shipping loans

Sign up for our newsletter

Stay ahead of development by receiving our newsletter on the latest sector knowledge.

!
Newsletter terms

Front page now

Palle Laursen has spent almost his entire career at Maersk where he began as a maritime engineer in 1998. He now retires as chief of fleet. | Foto: Maersk
Container

Maersk's chief of fleet leaves after 25 years as reshuffling continues

Palle Laursen leaves Maersk after 25 years in the company. Another leader is also out the door, as Vincent Clerc continues to put his stamp on the shipping giant.
  • Vincent Clerc sets brand new executive team
  • New executive team to steer Maersk through recession: "A lot of highly experienced industry people"

For subscribers

Lars Jensen is a shipping analyst and founder of consultancy Vespucci Maritime. In the future, he will write two opinion pieces for ShippingWatch a month. | Foto: Magnus Møller
Container

Opinion: Maersk and MSC heading for direct confrontation over customers

For subscribers

Foto: Uncredited/AP/Ritzau Scanpix
Tanker

New Russia sanctions could eventually leave Europe in drastic need of diesel

For subscribers

"Vi har nogle gange haft ry for at have et kortere aftræk end vores konkurrenter. Du kan godt regne med, at det ry vil vi gerne holde fast i," siger Jens Lund, driftsdirektør i DSV. | Foto: DSV
Logistics

DSV denies savings plan but is attentive to costs

For subscribers

Foto: PR / Euronav
Tanker

Euronav CEO defends decision to retain large dividend

For subscribers

Foto: Mike Blake/REUTERS / X00030
Container

Freight rates out of China continue to plummet

Further reading

Palle Laursen has spent almost his entire career at Maersk where he began as a maritime engineer in 1998. He now retires as chief of fleet. | Foto: Maersk
Container

Maersk's chief of fleet leaves after 25 years as reshuffling continues

Palle Laursen leaves Maersk after 25 years in the company. Another leader is also out the door, as Vincent Clerc continues to put his stamp on the shipping giant.

For subscribers

Foto: Staff/Reuters/Ritzau Scanpix
Logistics

DSV sees one advantage of downturn: It will be cheaper to buy competitors

Acquisitions are decisive for growth at logistics group DSV, and with prospects of declining freight volumes, the prices of acquisitions will fall. DSV will use this to its advantage, according to CEO Jens Bjørn Andersen.

For subscribers

Chief execs of Maersk and MSC, Vincent Clerc and Søren Toft, acknowledges that much have changed for the carriers since launching the 2M alliance. For that reason, the partnership is now ended. | Foto: Jacob Gronholt-pedersen/reuters/ritzau Scanpix og Jason Decrow/ap/ritzau Scanpix
Container

End of 2M alliance could trigger a domino effect

A new reality on freight markets and a need for fewer ties could be main reasons behind MSC and Maersk terminating their partnership. More alliance dissolutions could be coming, according to shipping analyst.

For subscribers

Latest news

  • Freight rates out of China continue to plummet – 3 Feb
  • Ziton wins multi-year deal with German utility – 3 Feb
  • Euronav CEO defends decision to retain large dividend – 3 Feb
  • DSV denies savings plan but is attentive to costs – 3 Feb
  • DP World to construct large port terminal in India – 3 Feb
  • Maersk's chief of fleet leaves after 25 years as reshuffling continues – 3 Feb
  • Clarksons banks on offshore wind with new US office – 3 Feb
  • Opinion: Maersk and MSC heading for direct confrontation over customers – 3 Feb
  • Bulgaria to keep up export flows of Russian fuels to Ukraine – 3 Feb
  • New Russia sanctions could eventually leave Europe in drastic need of diesel – 3 Feb
See all

Jobs

  • Foundation Package Manager - Offshore wind industry

  • Chartering Manager for Lauritzen Bulkers A/S

  • Senior Financial Controller

  • Ambitious employee for Shipping office wanted

  • Senior Lead, Human Sustainability at Sea

  • Financial Controller for International Shipping Company

  • Copenhagen Shipping Company is hiring a skilled cargo broker

  • Fleet Manager

Jobs

  • Foundation Package Manager - Offshore wind industry

  • Chartering Manager for Lauritzen Bulkers A/S

  • Senior Financial Controller

  • Ambitious employee for Shipping office wanted

  • Senior Lead, Human Sustainability at Sea

  • Financial Controller for International Shipping Company

  • Copenhagen Shipping Company is hiring a skilled cargo broker

  • Fleet Manager

See all jobs

Colophon

ShippingWatch
Search

Sections

  • Carriers
  • Logistics
  • Regulation
  • Suppliers
  • Offshore
  • Ports
  • Sitemap
  • RSS feeds

Editor

Tomas Kristiansen

tk@shippingwatch.dk

Tel.: +45 3330 8360

Editor-in-chief

Anders Heering

Publisher

JP/Politiken Media Group Ltd

Advertising

annoncering@infowatch.dk

Tel.: +45 7077 7445

Advertising

Job Advertising

job@infowatch.dk

Tel.: +45 7077 7445

Jobs

Subscription

Try ShippingWatch or get an offer for a subscription meeting the exact needs of you or your company.

shippingwatch@infowatch.dk

Tel.: +45 7077 7445

Learn more about subscriptions here

Address

ShippingWatch

Rådhuspladsen 37

1785 Copenhagen K, Denmark

Tel.: +45 3330 8360

Guidelines

  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © ShippingWatch — All rights reserved

Microsoft is in the process of discontinuing Internet Explorer – and so are we.
For a better experience, we recommend using one of the following browsers.

Kind regards,
ShippingWatch

Google ChromeMozilla FirefoxMicrosoft Edge